From the China Import and Export Fair, it is known that the photovoltaic industry is welcoming a new round of development opportunities, especially for overseas markets. As the cost of photovoltaic power generation declines, it is possible to achieve “parity electricity” in some countries. "The industry has developed more aggressive capacity plans. However, experts have warned that the integration of the photovoltaic industry has not yet been completed, and overseas expansion should pay attention to “worrying about the situation” and need to be cautious.
Multiple benefits to boost the photovoltaic industry against the trend. According to customs data, in 2015, China’s imports and exports in the first quarter fell by 6% year-on-year, and foreign trade continued to be pre-cooled. In sharp contrast, the photovoltaic industry, which once fell into a trough in 2008-2012, has bucked the trend.In fact, since the beginning of last year, news of a strong recovery in the export of the major PV industry provinces has been frequently reported. Known as the "barometer" of foreign trade, the Canton Fair, which attracts high-quality industries and enterprises, has also included the photovoltaic industry since last year. Judging from the situation this year, according to the news of the Mechanical and Electrical Chamber of Commerce, the current export development of the photovoltaic industry is still relatively fast. Nanjing Customs data shows that in the first two months of this year, Jiangsu Port imported a total of 3,722 tons of polysilicon, an increase of 1.2 times over the same period last year. According to the latest quarterly PV data released by the National Energy Administration, the cumulative installed capacity of new photovoltaic power generation in the first quarter of this year reached 5.04 million kilowatts.
Experts believe that this should be mainly due to the following three reasons: First, the Chinese market officially launched, the large-scale construction of China's power stations in the past few years and the large-scale promotion of distributed power grids in the past two years, the demand for the entire photovoltaic market is relatively large; At the same time, emerging markets such as the Middle East have seen a large increase in recent years. At present, Australia, Japan, Thailand, and India have become important PV markets. In addition, the technological advancement of PV companies can effectively reduce costs and lower prices, which is also the counter-warming trend of the PV industry. one of the reasons. Many experts expressed optimism about the future development of the photovoltaic industry. Combined with the national “Belt and Road” strategy and the AIIB, it is expected that the PV industry's prosperity is expected to continue.
PV exports ushered in a period of global development opportunities. Wang Huidong, an adviser to the China New Energy Industry Research Institute of the National Federation of Industry and Commerce New Energy Chamber of Commerce, predicts that the global installed capacity of solar energy is expected to reach 369 GW in 2015-2020. The global PV industry is opening a new cycle of prosperity. This is undoubtedly a major positive for China's PV companies, which account for more than half of the world's total output. "The current photovoltaic power generation price has already achieved parity online in many European and American countries and some developing countries." Ye Chao, who is currently working as a media director for Trina Solar, told the reporter.
In particular, in light of the development strategy of “One Belt, One Road”, the industry believes that the price decline, the new energy policy is good, the domestic PV industry expands overseas markets, especially in Southeast Asia, India, the Middle East, Central Asia and other areas along the way. The national market already has a first-mover advantage.
Power facilities in developing countries are not perfect, and the power gap is large. Compared with developed countries, new energy equipment replaces traditional energy equipment with lower cost and has broad development space. In Pakistan, for example, according to Pakistani buyer Haji, the power gap in Pakistan has reached 242% in recent years, but the increase in power generation capacity is less than 20%, far from meeting domestic demand. Solar power generation is an important direction for them to solve power shortages. It is understood that many domestic PV companies have begun to actively deploy overseas capacity expansion. In the past, it was placed in China for production and global sales. The next big trend in the industry is to further accelerate the pace of overseas expansion and global production.
In this regard, industry experts believe that domestic PV companies overseas expansion still need to be careful. First of all, from the current overall situation, it is understood that although the recovery of the photovoltaic industry lasted for one and a half years, due to the thin profit margin of the manufacturing sector, the absolute value of the net profit of related companies in the industry chain is still not high, and most enterprises still prefer tight.
The photovoltaic industry is now clearly differentiated. In the past few years, there has been a surplus of capacity. Since 2013, this wave of recovery has been characterized by differentiation, branding, and leading enterprises with scale, and the operating rate has been continuously improved. Some large enterprises are now full of production and even Looking for some people to do OEM, but SMEs are clearly going on. In the past, the sales of PV products were mainly in the form of B2B, which was sold to power generation groups. In the future, overseas is more oriented to the distributed market of residents. Towards B2C means more to test the brand effect. According to industry experts, the final PV industry is likely to be integrated into five or six brand-name companies, like the color TV industry, from one or two hundred companies, the survival of the fittest. At present, the industry integration has not been completed, and the structural adjustment of this round is still continuing.
The foundation for the comprehensive recovery of the photovoltaic industry is still not stable. Secondly, the financing channels of the photovoltaic industry are still limited. In terms of overseas expansion, most enterprises advocate the migration mode of the industrial chain in order to form a cluster of synergies, otherwise the terminal products are difficult to sell. In this way, the capital needs are large. It is understood that in the past few years, the industry has been a loss, the production capacity is seriously over-supplied, and the bank has formulated a more stringent lending policy.
Nowadays, the photovoltaic industry has been recovering for just one and a half years, and all domestic lending systems have to review the assets and incomes of enterprises for two or three years. Many PV companies have lost money a year and a half ago, and borrowing has been hindered. Experts remind that while grasping the opportunities of this round of overseas, PV companies must first handle the problem of “backyard”, consider the two markets at home and abroad, and make good plans for the photovoltaic industry in the local market, relevant policies and country risks. Fully research, pay attention to the matching of investment return period and loan term, try to take the differentiated route, win with technology and innovation, be alert to possible risks, and must not blindly do so.
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